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AXNT20 KNHC 291733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W THEN ALONG 3N12W 1N18W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS JUST TO THE SE AND IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE S GULF. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN OVER FAR E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA THEN W TO JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N80W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 18N83W TO 16N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-79W AND S OF 20N W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN INTO THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 70W. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 62W-66W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN INCREASING TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO MODERATE ON MON THROUGH MID WEEK.

HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF S HAITI ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER E CUBA. THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS E INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N74W TO FAR E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N48W. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 26N43W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W ALONG 28N42W TO 23N41W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 38W-41W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE AZORES. THE N PORTION OF THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY WHILE THE FRONT S OF 25N WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE W ATLC AND SETTLE ALONG 28N BY LATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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