AXNT20 KNHC 191120

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
719 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC.


At 19/0900 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.0N 62.3W or about 45 nm WSW of Guadeloupe and 165 nm SE of St. Croix, moving WNW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong convection and tstms are within 120 nm of the center in all quadrants and from 09N to 16N between 57W and 63W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N to 19N between 57W and 66W. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 210 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.0N 71.3W, moving N at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 36N to 39N between 68W and 73W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and 76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave came off the W coast of Africa earlier this morning. Its axis extends from 19N16W to 07N17W. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, and abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA LPW and TPW imagery. Upper level diffluent flow supports scattered moderate convection from 06N to 13N between 14W and 22W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending from 21N79W to 08N83W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the northern wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support scattered heavy showers and tstms S of 18N between 78W and 84W.


The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 13N17W to 07N30W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W and continues along 08N45W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.



Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with light and variable winds over most of the basin with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche associated with the tropical wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the basin through Wednesday.


Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the Leeward Islands and NE Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special features for further details. The remaining weather in the basin is associated with a tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves section for more information. Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria and Jose allow for light to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west with convection.


Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island. Weather conditions will deteriorate across the Island starting Wed morning associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria moving across Puerto Rico. These showers will increase as the system moves WNW very close of the Island on Thu.


Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants of T.D. Lee are located near 15N43W and are forecast to move NW during the next 24 hours. Numerous strong convection and scattered tstms are within 150 nm NE quadrant of the low center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 23N between 37W and 44W. A surface trough is over the central Atlc extending from 30N40W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is E of this trough N of 23N between 33W and 40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Ramos