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AXNT20 KNHC 012321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 5N9W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 1S25W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 2N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W AND 38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER IS LOCATED OFFSHORE OF SW FLORIDA NEAR 26N86W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO SE LOUISIANA. SE RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT 15-20 KT LOCALLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. OBSERVATIONS IN THE NW GULF WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF CURRENTLY REPORT REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 3-5 NM WITH FAIR WEATHER REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BASIN ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC OCEAN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE FRESH TO STRONG. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS S OF HISPANIOLA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY ARE 8-11 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HISPANIOLA.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ORIGINATING FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS WITH DRY AND MAINLY STABLE AIR IN PLACE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NW OF HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT OCCURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO 25N50W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG 32N EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BORDER. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N W OF 68W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE FORMING ACROSS THE WATERS E OF FLORIDA ALONG 77W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE S ALONG 29N-30N TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTION DISSIPATING BY THU EVENING WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE E ACROSS THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLC WATERS.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 40W FROM 18N TO 24N. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NEAR THIS FEATURE.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...TROUGHING IS PRESENT FROM 32N52W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS WITH UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING IN ACROSS THE ATLC W OF 65W. RIDGING EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM 32N38W TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WELL TO THE S-SW NEAR 07N55W. A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LEWITSKY

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