AXNT20 KNHC 241041

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
640 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 27.9N 72.7W at 24/0900 UTC or about 252 nm east-northeast of Great Abaco Island, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 66W-76W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.8N 50.1W at 24/0900 UTC or about 747 nm east of Bermuda, moving south at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N-34N between 48W-52W. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave extends its axis from 22N25W to 06N27W, moving west at about 10 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb low, the northern vortex, centered near 15N28W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave axis at this time. The ongoing convection is related to the monsoon trough axis and will be mentioned in the section below.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 20N58W to 06N60W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge anchored near 21N44W and lies beneath an upper level trough axis extending along 53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N-18N between 51W-61W.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 14N17W to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ near the tropical wave over the central Atlantic mainly west of 51W.



A mid to upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered over southern Alabama near 31N87W with a trough axis extending southward over the eastern Gulf to a broad base over the Yucatan peninsula and northwest Caribbean. A weak pressure pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to moderate easterly winds with areas of isolated showers generally occurring north of 26N and east of 88W under the influence of the mid to upper-level lifting dynamics in place. Elsewhere, dry and stable northerly flow aloft and gentle to moderate easterly winds are providing for fair conditions and mostly clear skies. Through the remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week, little change is expected in overall conditions.


West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails west of 73W as Hurricane Maria is well north of the basin and an overall weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western Caribbean. As a result of this, winds remain generally light to gentle and variable at times. A couple of surface troughs are analyzed in the basin, one over the Gulf of Honduras, and the other extending south of Hispaniola near 18N72W to 14N74W. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of these troughs. A tropical wave currently along 60W will continue approaching the Lesser Antilles through the weekend increasing the probability of convection across the eastern Caribbean's islands and adjacent waters.


A surface trough currently extends from the south-central coast near 18N72W to 14N74W and continues to provide focus for isolated showers across the southeastern portion and south coast of the island. The troughing will slide westward through the weekend as weak ridging builds in from the central Atlantic from the east.


Outside the influence of Maria across the west Atlantic waters, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of the basin. A 1019 mb high is centered near 34N57W, and a 1021 mb high is centered across the central Atlantic near 28N40W. Between these two highs, Tropical Storm Lee continues to influence the waters from 30N-33N between 48W-52W. In addition, a mid to upper- level trough extends along 52W enhancing isolated convection from 20N- 25N between 50W-55W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine