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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO 08N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 20W-29W...FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 22W- 31W...AND FROM 03N-08N W OF 41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N93W TO 17N95W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 84W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 17N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF 21N W OF 84W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N56W. FROM THIS POINT...THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS N ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS FRONT. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 33N44W TO 21N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N BETWEEN 37W-47W. A LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 40N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ESE WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH AND EXTENDING S ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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