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000
AXNT20 KNHC 062349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 999 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 31.5N76W SUN ON 07/1200 UTC. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF A COLD FRONT FROM LOW TO 27N77W TO 22N79W. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 75W SUNDAY NIGHT ON 08/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N08W TO 03N20W TO 03N39W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 37W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N91W 18N94W. 20-25 KT NW-N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS COLD AIR ADVECTION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. ZONAL FLOW IS S OF 24N. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N78W IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO DISSIPATE AND A 1027 MB HIGH TO ADVECT TO LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 22N82W 17N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI- STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N64W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N W OF 75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 49W-55W. EXPECT ON SUN FOR A GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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