AXNT20 KNHC 271719

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is across the central Atlantic
extending its axis from 16N41W to 04N41W, moving westward at 10
to 15 knots. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment
as noted in TPW imagery. Despite this, no significant convection
is observed at this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean with axis
from 19N67W to 10N67W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Moderate
moisture prevails in the wave's environment and a broad 700 mb
trough is depicted in global guidance. Isolated showers are
observed from 13N-16N between 66W-71W.


The Monsoon Trough reaches the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and
continues to 13N28W to a 1010 mb surface low near 10N37W. The ITCZ
begins west of a tropical wave near 09N43W to 08N56W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails from 09N15N between 19W-40W and from
07N-10N between 44W-54W.



An upper-level trough extends across the whole basin with axis
along 92W. With this, a diffluent flow east of the trough's axis
is enhancing cloudiness and isolated convection mainly east of
90W. At the surface, a trough extends from 25N91W to 19N91W with
isolated showers affecting the Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin.
Expect through the next 24hours for the upper-level trough to
weaken as it drifts northwest. Convection will continue to be a
possibility across the southeast Gulf waters supported by a
diffluent flow aloft.


A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. lease
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting scattered moderate convection across the western and
central portions of the basin mainly west of 70W, with strongest
activity affecting Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and the CaymanIslands.
A shear line extends from 18N86W to 18N80W to 20N75W. A pair of
surface troughs extend from 17N87W to 15N83W and from 13N82W to
10N79W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
winds north of the shear line while gentle to moderate trades
prevail elsewhere. Expect through the next 24 hours for the shear
line and tropical wave to dissipate. A pair of surface lows will
develop over the west Caribbean enhancing convection.


Upper-level anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the island.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the western portion
of the island and adjacent waters. Expect for a similar weather
pattern to prevail through the next 24 hours.


A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A surface ridge prevails
across the western Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high centered
near 43N72W. To the east, a shear line extends from 20N74W to
21N67W to 23N63W while a weakening stationary front extends from
that point to 30N54W. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are
depicted in scatterometer data to the north and west of the shear
line while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere. A
surface trough extends from 23N55W to 19N56W with isolated
moderate convection. Across the far east Atlantic, a 1003 mb
surface low extends a trough from 33N22W to 28N25W. The shear line
is expected to dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change
is expected elsewhere.

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