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AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM 06N TO 15N WITH AXIS NEAR 56W/57W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N23W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 24W AND 53W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO TROUGHS SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W TO 18N94W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN EASTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FORCING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 86W. A 1009 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 63W. TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN AREA OF 25 KT WINDS JUST OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N63W SUPPORTS A COUPLE OF LOW LEVEL CENTERS WITH TROUGHING. THE WESTERNMOST LOW OF 1015 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 26N67 WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N64W...THROUGH THE LOW...TO 24N67W. THE EASTERNMOST LOW OF 1016 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 25N60W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO 25N63W. THIS SECOND LOW IS DEPICTED WELL IN THIS MORNINGS SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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