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AXNT20 KNHC 221734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N17W TO 6N31W TO 7N42W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND FROM 5N- 9N BETWEEN 30W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ON THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N75W PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FROM 24N80W TO 24N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-25N E OF 84W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 93W-97W. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 93W-96W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SSW FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N AND W OF 86W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF S NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N83W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WHILE PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER TO HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N51W TO E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONTS. A 1024 NM HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N12W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N10W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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