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AXNT20 KNHC 262351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27N70W and is currently interacting with a broad upper-level trough, supporting scattered moderate convection across the west Atlantic from 19N- 31N between 65W-76W. A surface trough extends from 32N63w, to the low, to 30N72W. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form on Friday or Saturday while the system moves west- northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. There is a high chance for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. For more information on this system, please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers TWOAT/ABNT20.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving slowly w across western Africa, with axis extending from 14N13W to 06N14W. The wave is in the vicinity of a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Isolated moderate convection prevails in the wave's environment mainly between 10W-14W.

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis that extends from 09N44W to 01N46W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a low amplitude 700 mb trough and is along the leading edge of an area of deep moisture. The convection in the vicinity of the wave is likely associated with the proximity of the ITCZ.

A new low-amplitude tropical wave has been introduced to this map. The wave's axis is located southeast of the Windward Islands extending from 13N56W to a 1011 mb low near 09N57W to 08N57W. These features are embedded in an area of deep moisture as noted in 700 mb TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 08N-11N between 54W-58W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the tropical Atlantic starting at around 10N15W to 04N23W. The ITCZ begins near 04N23W and continues to 08N43W. An area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevails north of the ITCZ between 27W-49W. Isolated convection is along the Monsoon Trough.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge axis extends across the basin from the west Atlantic high pressure centered west of Bermuda and a 1021 mb high centered over the northeast Gulf near 29N84W. Scatterometer data depicts a fresh to strong southeasterly flow across the western half of the basin while a gentle to moderate easterly flow prevails across the eastern Gulf waters. An area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevails along the central portion of the CONUS reaching the north-central Gulf waters, mainly north of 28N between 91W-95W. Over the next 24 hours, a similar weather pattern will prevail across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough prevails across the western portion of the basin inducing scattered moderate convection mainly north of 15N and west of 70W affecting portions of Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. A stationary 1010 mb surface low is centered near 10N81W related to the EPAC Monsoon Trough with scattered moderate convection prevailing south of 10N and west of 75W. A surface trough extends across the Virgin Islands area from 21N63W to 15N65W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the majority of the basin except between 70W-80W where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Within the next 24 hours, a low-amplitude tropical wave will enter the basin with convection.

HISPANIOLA...

A broad upper-level trough over the western Atlantic and west Caribbean supports patches of showers and thunderstorms across the island. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough covers the west Atlantic supporting scattered convection across the area west of 65W. An elongated area of low pressure is centered near 27N70W and has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. For more information, please refer to the Special Features section above. To the east, a surface ridge dominates the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 33N49W. A pair of surface troughs are over the central Atlantic, one extending from 29N51W to 26N53W, and the other from 29N42W to 29N37W. Two tropical waves extends across the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Expect during the next 24 hours for the low in the west Atlantic to move northwest with convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA

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