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AXNT20 KNHC 062346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N33W TO 1N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N55W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONT IN THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 23N96W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N75W OVER E JAMAICA ALONG 15N79W TO S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 16N INCLUDING MOST OF HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 14N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NW OF THE FRONT GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS. DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF FRONT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA SAT THROUGH SUN. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH NE FLOW IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN MOVING E AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN AND EXTEND FROM 32N65W TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W SAT THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N62W ALONG 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W SUN. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N67W ALONG 25N71W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N75W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT BETWEEN 23N-27N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 280 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 23N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N45W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN MOVING E AS A COLD FRONT AGAIN AND EXTEND FROM 32N65W TO HAITI SAT THEN WEAKEN FROM 32N62W ALONG 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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