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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... -Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 33.0N 79.5W at 30/0900 UTC or about 25 nm ENE of Charleston South Carolina and about 50 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving NE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 75 nm of center. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave extends from 03N09W to 11N12W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 08W and 14W and 700 mb relative vorticity extending along the wave axis. Active convection has occurred the past few evenings with the wave...however only isolated moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 08N between 09W and 15W west of the wave axis as it moves off the coast of Africa this morning.

Tropical wave extends from 05N30W to 11N23W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is likely the result of slower energy associated with the tropical wave to the west along 44W. This wave is noted in 700 mb global model fields to the west of a low to mid-level easterly jet on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03N44W to 10N42W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 40W and 50W on the far southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is likely to weaken during the next couple days as it approaches the South American continent with any remaining energy merging with the tropical wave to the east along 32W. No significant deep convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03N72W to 12N73W moving W at 15 kt. The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over northeastern South America and portions of the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 70W and 74W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... -The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 06N23W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N23W to 02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from the Equator to 04N between 36W and 43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the SE CONUS near the South Carolina coast S-SE to over the central Bahamas near 23N77W with primarily W to NW flow prevailing over much of the Gulf basin this morning. Water vapor imagery indicates fairly dry and stable conditions aloft which is further supported by a 1019 mb high centered in the north- central Gulf waters near 29N89W. Mostly clear skies are noted on satellite imagery with a few isolated showers occurring within convective debris cloudiness across the western waters W of 92W. Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through Tuesday and this synoptic pattern is expected through much of next week as the ridge moves eastward gradually into the NE Gulf waters by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA... The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over Cuba and the Windward Passage region providing the NW Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow influencing much of the basin W of 78W. Conditions W of 78W remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers and tstms occurring SW of Jamaica near 17N81W. E of 78W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence associated with the troughing over the SW North Atlc is providing for scattered showers and tstms N of 15N between 68W and 79W. The upper level trough will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday night...however upper level troughing will persist over the SW North Atlc off the coast of Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin Islands through Tuesday night. This will result in increased probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week across the north-central and NE Caribbean.


...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the adjacent coastal waters this morning due to a middle to upper level diffluent environment over the island on the southeastern periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week providing higher probability for precipitation and convection through the first half of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SE CONUS Atlc coast this morning as it tracks along the Carolina coast through Wednesday. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively diffluent environment aloft due to a middle to upper level trough axis extending from over the Florida peninsula to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 20N to 31N between 69W and 76W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist off the coast of Florida through Tuesday. Farther east...a trio of high centers influence the central and eastern Atlc...a 1023 mb high centered near 32N21W...a 1022 mb high centered near 28N28W and a 1022 mb high centered near 25N45W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 50W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ HUFFMAN

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