Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 142359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 25.4N 52.1W AT 14/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 747 NM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND EDOUARD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 51W-56W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 21N16W TO 9N19W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LONG LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 10N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N38W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N39W. THIS SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 39W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 23N87W TO 12N88W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 10N22W TO 9N40W TO 8N44W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N44W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 22W-43W...AND FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 47W-51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N95W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N90W TO THE TIP OF S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD...WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF AND MERGE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION ACROSS THE E GULF SHOULD LESSEN WHILE THE W GULF BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AGAIN ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY SINCE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N69W MOVING SLOWLY W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W MOVING W. THE BASE OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 33N34W TO BEYOND 32N42W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N69W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 63W-71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

Home