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AXNT20 KNHC 081754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM 32N62W ALONG 27N66W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA THEN INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. THESE WINDS WILL BE N OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 976 MB STORM LOW OFF THE MARYLAND COAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGES OVER THE E CONUS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. THIS IS ALSO GENERATING SEAS TO 30 FT...HIGHEST NEAR 32N70W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR NW AREA N OF 29N W OF 78W. THESE WINDS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE N OF THE AREA WED EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT OVER THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-33W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT 08/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W ALONG 27N96W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS THEN MEXICO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. STRONG WINDS ARE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF EXCEPT W OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF TODAY THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TODAY THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW AREA WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE GULF N OF 18N W OF 80W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO 20N78W THEN S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 18N82W ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 12N84W. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF THE FRONT. THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE THEN STALLING FROM SW HAITI TO W PANAMA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TUE NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THU NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF NW AND SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT E LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE STALLING OVER SW HAITI TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND AN INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER W ATLC TO OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A 976 MB STORM CENTER OFF THE MARYLAND COAST NEAR 27N67W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 08/1500 UTC NEAR 32N61W ALONG 27N64W TO 22N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N71W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES AND W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N59W TO HAITI THIS EVENING. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA TONIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WED MORNING BEFORE MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NW PORTION TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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