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AXNT20 KNHC 241204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATER THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 3N45W TO 12N44W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX ALONG A BROADER 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET N OF 9N LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPRESSED N OF 10N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N62W TO 19N59W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE ALSO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AND INCORPORATES THE NORTHERN POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX OF A 700 MB TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-67W...INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWS E OF THE WAVE WITH LEADING EDGE NOTED E OF 57W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH S MEXICO EXTENDS S OF 20N ALONG 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 10N24W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N24W TO 09N39W TO 02N51W. EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. STATIONARY FRONT AND AN EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ANALYZED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA W-SW TO 25N90W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO ANCHOR ROUGHLY ALONG 27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NW CUBA NEAR 21N84W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N71W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS DRY AND SUBSIDENT PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 60W-70W. MOST OF THIS IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING FROM MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND NEAR 18N71W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EAST OF THE ISLAND AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N75W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N33W AND 29N47W ALONG 28N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE OCEANIC AREA EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES NOTED ABOVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IN CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 44W. A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DUST STRETCHING MOSTLY NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MUNDELL

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