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AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N51W TO 1N53W...MOVING AT 13 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVELS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 46W-57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 51W-56W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 5N18W TO 4N40W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 7W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 17W-21W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N89W TO 27N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 88W-90W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER A LARGE AREA OF MEXICO FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN 97W-103W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 26N AND E OF 84W MOVING W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 10-15 KT SURFACE E TO SE RETURN FLOW WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA SE COAST FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-80W MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N66W TO 25N61W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FROM 26N58W TO 22N59W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 43N36W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 10W-50W. A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MOROCCO NEAR 33N7W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 49W- 60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N15W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE CENTER. A TROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD AT 10N60W TO 18N40W TO NW MAURITANIA AT 21N16W PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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