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AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 9N16W 5N19W TO 2N223W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 2N36W THEN SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 23W-45W AND FROM 1N- 3N BETWEEN 44W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS...W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 25N89W. SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF WHERE BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE N GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THEN SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86W TO BELIZE NEAR 16N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI NEAR 18N72W ALONG 16N79W TO 12N81W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N81W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SAN ANDRES ISLAND LATE TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF HAITI THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST N OF THE ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRI. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 26N65W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 24N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 79W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N41W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N31W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N56W ALONG 24N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TODAY AND BECOME DIFFUSE FRI. A SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY ON FRI WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND SAT DRAGGING A SECOND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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