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000
AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W STARTING AT 0600 UTC SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 01S18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 04N E OF 20W AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLAND...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 17N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 36N25W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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