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AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N16W TO 02N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N25W AND EXTENDS TO 00N30W TO 03N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N43W TO 01N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 14W-36W...AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 43W-49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO S OF VERA CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. FURTHER S OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10-15 KT S FLOW IS E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT WAS OVER FLORIDA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ALSO IN 24 HOURS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N57W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N33W. A 1010 MB LOW IS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 34N13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. MORE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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