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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W UNTIL EARLY MORNING MON. THIS GALE WARNING IS A RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND EXTENDS TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N34W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N E OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N E OF 13W TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 15W-29W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N96W ALONG 28N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE SW AND S/CENTRAL GULF. THIS AREA OF SMOKE IS SHIFTING E TOWARD THE SE GULF. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT S INTO THE N GULF EARLY MON THEN RETREAT N AGAIN TUE. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENTER THE GULF TUE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDING IT ON MON. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ARE WINDING DOWN ACROSS CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SMOKE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND E HAITI TONIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 29N74W. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 36W-62W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A PAIR OF 1024 MB HIGHS NEAR 33N24W AND 26N33W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N33W ALONG 21N46W TO 21N70W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL SHIFT S INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO 27N68W TO 25N75W EARLY TUE REACHING FROM 31N59W TO 26N66W WITH A WARM FRONT FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 31N78W EARLY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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