AXNT20 KNHC 241727

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N22W to 04N37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 10W-30W.



A mid to upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery extending across the whole basin with axis extending from over the Florida Big Bend area to a base over the southwest Gulf near 21N98W. This troughing supports a 1009 mb low centered in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N80W and its associated cold front that extends southwest over the Florida Peninsula and southeast Gulf from 26N82W to 21N87W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across much of the basin. The low will continue moving northeast across the west Atlantic through Friday as the front continues across the remainder of the Florida peninsula and southeast Gulf waters clearing east of the basin by Saturday.


A surface trough extends from 19N80W to 11N80W with scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring between 75W-82W. This activity extends farther south across Costa Rica and Panama as the monsoon trough axis extends along 10N-11N. Most of this convection is supported aloft by an overall divergent southwesterly flow aloft between a mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid to upper-level ridge anchored over the northeast Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts mainly gentle to moderate trades east of 78W. Little change is expected through Sunday night.


Isolated showers are possible across western portions of the island as more active convection lies across eastern Cuba and the waters surrounding Jamaica in association with a favorable divergent environment within a southwesterly flow aloft.


A stationary front enters the western Atlantic region near 31N77W to a 1009 mb surface low near 29N80W. A cold front extends southwest from the low across central Florida and the southwest Gulf of Mexico waters. The mid to upper level trough supporting the low remains over much of the Gulf of Mexico, while a favorable divergent environment remains over much of the west Atlantic generating scattered showers and thunderstorms generally W of 68W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted to the north- northwest of the low/front. The low is expected to move northeast through Saturday night with persistent convection expected along and east of the cold front extending southward from the low. To the east, a 1000 mb surface low is centered near 30N30W, extending its cold front from 31N23W to 24N39W. A pre- frontal trough is located from 30N22W to 20N33W. Scattered moderate convection prevails mainly with the trough between 17W- 33W. Strong to near gale winds prevail over the southwestern quadrant of the low affecting the waters north of 30N. This conditions will diminish as the low weakens and moves east. A weak 1014 mb surface low is centered near 18N48W with no significant convection. This low will dissipate within the next 18-24 hours.

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