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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE FRED AT 31/0600 UTC. HURRICANE FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 22.5W AT 31/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 52 NM KM S-SE OF RABIL AND ABOUT 60 NM E-NE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 20W-24W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 21N51W ALONG 15N55W TO 9N55W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 68W S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS TRAILING AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 66W- 70W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST THEN RESUMES S OF HURRICANE FRED NEAR 11N23W ALONG 8N30W TO 7N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 36W-39W AND FROM 10N- 12N BETWEEN 43W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 23W-30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE NW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF. THIS IS CREATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS UNDER THIS AREA FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N83W ALONG 26N84W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N84W TO THE THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N90W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT W ACROSS THE E GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-86W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ATLC DIPS SW OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-12N W OF 82W. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-75W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED.


...HISPANIOLA... THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W- 75W. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE BEFORE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS MORE MOISTURE TUE NIGHT AND THE WAVE ON WED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N76W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N81W. THE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W ALONG 27N52W 24N58W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 60W-64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N48W 26N58W 25N66W TO 26N75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W AND A 1020 HIGH NEAR 24N47W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO N WATERS WED NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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