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AXNT20 KNHC 221037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS. BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH ZONES. THE GALE IS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A 1012 MB ISOBAR OVER MOROCCO PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N21W TO 3N21W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST IS N OF THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N22W AND CONTINUES TO 6N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 2W-8W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 8W- 17W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 24W-38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF S OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N89W TO 15N94W. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT E SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 97W-103W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS WEAK RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W- 84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 19N- 20N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM AGAIN FRI ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W- 70W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N30W WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 10W- 12W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N42W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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