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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14N55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ATTACHED TO THIS LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 51W-60W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N23W TO 13N24W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N53W TO 12N56W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 09N-20N BETWEEN 52W-60W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 12N25W TO AN 1012 MB LOW AT 11N30W TO 08N37W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 33W-43W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING WATERS WEST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 86W...BETWEEN 23N-26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND NORTHERN CUBA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTH OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA COAST...E OF COSTA RICA FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS MAINLY ACROSS EAST HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS THIS WAVE AND EMBEDDED LOW APPROACH THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.


...HISPANIOLA...

QUIET WEATHER PREVAILING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY MAINLY OVER HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N47W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23- 26N...BETWEEN 78W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 30491W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RELATED TO THIS LOW NEAR 25N-28N...BETWEEN 64W-70W. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RIVERA/HUFFMAN

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