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000
AXNT20 KNHC 250557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave over Africa extends from 3N7W to 13N5W moving west near 10 to 15 kt. Wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated convection in the Atlantic waters.

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 34W from 1N to 9N moving west 10 to 15 kt. Wave is trailing an amplified 700 mb trough and along the leading edge of an area of deep moisture. Any convection in the vicinity is associated with the ITCZ not the tropical wave.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic is extends along 58W south of 11N to inland over Guyana South America moving west 25 to 30 kt. Wave coincides with an highly amplified 700 mb trough and is along the leading edge of an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean along 78W extends south of 14N to over Panama and southwest Colombia moving west near 10 kt. Wave coincides with a low amplified 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 5N20W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 6N30W to the tropical wave near 5N33W then resumes west of the wave near 5N36W to South America near 3N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 90 NM of monsoon trough/ITCZ between 19W-29W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 5N-8N between 10W-17W and from 2N-6N between 31W-42W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad upper ridge anchored in the east Pacific region extends over east Mexico and east Texas while and upper trough extends over the far east CONUS and the Florida peninsula into the west Caribbean. This is giving the Gulf northwest flow aloft. Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the west Gulf, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite imagery tonight. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across northeast Florida to a 1020 mb high near 29N85W continuing to near Corpus Christi Texas. The upper trough over the Florida is generating some isolated showers/thunderstorms from the Florida Keys to the north coast of Cuba east of 83W leaving the remainder of the Gulf with mostly clear skies tonight. The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Friday. The pressure gradient will increase over the northwest Gulf Thursday night through Friday morning increasing the southeast winds to fresh to strong. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours along the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula due to the local effects of a diurnal surface trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper trough extends across the Florida peninsula across Cuba into the west Caribbean west of 70W while an equally sharp upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles into the west-central Atlantic covering the remainder of the Caribbean basin. The upper trough is generating scattered showers/thunderstorms from 16N-20N between 73W-81W including Jamaica, and portions of Cuba and Haiti. The ITCZ extends from 11N79W across Costa Rica into the east Pacific region near 10N83W generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 11N east of 78W to inland over Panama and Costa Rica. Although the upper ridge is advecting moisture across the east Caribbean, no shower activity is noted on radar or satellite imagery tonight. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Thursday. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late Thursday as a surface trough intensifies across the west Atlantic. The tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean will exit the basin Thursday. Another tropical wave will enter the southeast Caribbean Thursday, moving into the south-central Caribbean Friday.

HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are over portions of Haiti, leaving the Dominican Republic under mostly clear skies tonight. The upper trough currently over eastern Cuba and the western Caribbean will expand eastward Thursday and Friday. A surface trough over the western Atlantic is expected to intensify and coupled with lingering moisture will continue to the give the island chances of showers and possible thunderstorms through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough covers the far west Atlantic anchored by a pair of 1022 mb highs near 30N77W and 33N76w and extending a ridge axis across northeast Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A sharp upper trough extends over the far eastern CONUS across the Florida peninsula and Cuba into the western Caribbean covering the western Atlantic west of 70W while an equally sharp upper ridge extends from over South America across the Lesser Antilles and into the west-central Atlantic to beyond 32N61W. This is creating a diffluent environment over a portion of the west Atlantic to generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms south of 23N to the Greater Antilles between 67W-76W. Scattered showers are from 23N-30N between 63W-70W. Beneath all of the activity above is a dissipating stationary front that extends through 32N68W along 28N70W to 25N75W and a surface trough analyzed from 26N68W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high near 35N45W. The west Atlantic dissipating front will continue southeast becoming a frontal trough Wednesday and extending from 32N64W to the southeast Bahamas Wednesday night, then move back west Thursday and Friday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ PAW

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