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000
AXNT20 KNHC 060009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

STRONG GALE TO STORM WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE W ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SEE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N33W TO 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02S TO 03N W OF 32W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. 10-15 KT NE TO E SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS HOWEVER THE GULF HAS ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR 25 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO BE OVER THE W GULF WITH SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS.


...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO IS STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS A TROUGH SAT. THIS COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N77W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO 26N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE LOW. A 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 21N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-15N BETWEEN 54W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 16W-26W. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS FOR A GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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