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000
AXNT20 KNHC 310004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON 01 NOV 1800 UTC FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W. A GALE IS FORECAST TO BE N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WITH SW WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS OF 10-15 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL 02 NOV 1200 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N74W TO 11N74W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AROUND THIS WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-77W TO INCLUDE OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES TO 7N26W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N26W AND CONTINUES TO 9N40W TO 8N48W TO 11N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 18W-28W... FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 41W-45W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-57W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W TO S OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AT 25N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 27N83W TO 23N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N94W TO 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 92W- 95W. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W S OF 20N. FURTHERMORE...A MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA... S OF 11N. ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N TO 17N BETWEEN 62W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W...AND FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT AN AREA UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO MOVE E OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO APPROACH E CUBA AND HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO ST AUGUSTINE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 61W-65W. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N47W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 21N26W TO 25N40W DISSIPATING TO 25N50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N63W WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 17N38W ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-23N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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