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AXNT20 KNHC 312350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the eastern Tropical Atlantic extends along 24W from 3N-12N moving west near 25 kt. Wave is embedded within a area of Saharan dust and to the west of a low amplitude surge of moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic along 48W-49W from 5N-13N moving west near 25 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave is along 59W/60W from the west Tropical Atlantic near 13N to over South America moving west near 20 kt. Wave is embedded within a surge of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean has moved inland over Central America along 84W south of 16N moving west near 20 kt. Wave is embedded within an area of deep moisture that covers most of the Caribbean. No associated deep convection.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W along 10N19W to east of a tropical wave near 5N24W. The ITCZ begins west of the tropical wave near 4N26W along 1N40W to South America near 1N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 NM south of the monsoon trough between 19W-22W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are south of 11N to inland over South America between 50W-59W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored in the east Pacific region extending across the west Gulf of Mexico to over the Mississippi Valley covering the Gulf west of 87W. An upper trough extends from the eastern CONUS over the Florida peninsula and the east Gulf of Mexico into the west Caribbean and west Atlantic. A surface ridge covers the Gulf with a 1016 mb high near 28N86W. Afternoon showers/ thunderstorms have been developed inland over most of Florida, west Cuba, and the Yucatan peninsula. The activity over Texas along the Texas coast is due to difflunce between the upper ridge over the west Gulf and a large upper trough over the central CONUS. These showers/thunderstorms could move into the Gulf waters along the Texas coast overnight tonight. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear across the Gulf basin this evening. The surface ridge will persist though the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico extends over the west Caribbean west of 74W. A low amplitude upper ridge extends from over South America over the remainder of the Caribbean. Upper diffluence between the upper level features is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 16N between 73W-81W with scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 11N-14N between 72W-80W. The easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating are generating afternoon showers/thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Cuba this evening. Moderate to fresh trade winds are across the basin except light and variable winds in the southwest Caribbean. Winds are expected to increase between Colombia and Jamaica on Wednesday night then expanding across the west Caribbean toward Cuba by the weekend.


...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are across the island this evening. This activity is associated with the easterly trade winds, the upper trough to the west, and day time heating. The upper trough will give way to the upper ridge to the east covering the island by Thursday night. Afternoon showers/ thunderstorms are expected to continue through the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico covers the west Atlantic west of 72W with a narrow upper ridge to the east extending from the northern Leeward Islands to Bermuda. The diffluent area between these upper features is generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 20N-28N between 66W-72W. The afternoon thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Cuba are moving north into the west Atlantic waters. An upper trough in the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic near 32N28W and extends along 27N41W to 29N52W where it becomes stationary to beyond 32N57W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N35W along 26N45W to 27N55W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high near 39N50W. A weak surface ridge will build from Bermuda to northeast Florida tonight through Thursday.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ PAW

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