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AXNT20 KNHC 052351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 05 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N17W TO 3N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N33W TO 1N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 4N- 8N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF 3N E OF 13W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-26W AND FROM 29W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE ITCZ ALONG 50W FROM 2N-9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N W OF 45W TO THE TROUGH AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC/NW CARIBBEAN AND A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AT 05/2100 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W ALONG 29N87W TO 29N92W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF E OF 92W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N94W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING E FRI INTO SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 18N TO ACROSS CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 18N. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NW OF THE FRONT GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER WITH SOME CLOUDINESS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 76W GIVING THAT AREA FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E WHERE IT WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA FRI THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA SAT.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED OVER N HAITI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. EXPECT SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD E TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND AS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA FRI THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 05/2100 UTC NEAR 32N70W ALONG 26N73W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT S OF 23N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE PORTION OF THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N43W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E EXTENDING FROM 32N68W TO E CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI AND FROM 32N66W TO HAITI SAT THEN STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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