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AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 28/0000 UTC...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 70.7W OR ABOUT 305 NM WNW OF BERMUDA...MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 31N BETWEEN 60W-73W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 21N25W TO 10N26W...ENDING ON A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED AT 10N26W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITHIN THIS WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N37W TO 11N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST ARE ALSO PRESENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 140 NM EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N56W TO 10N57W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE S OF 17N WHICH ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N72W TO 12N71W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF THE WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 16N AND E OF 72W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N25W TO 11N40W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N-16N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1011 MB LOW IS BEING ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE TO END IN ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N-30N BETWEEN 91W-96W AFFECTING COASTAL SW LOUISIANA...S TEXAS...AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO PRESENT N OF THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...MAINLY FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 86W- 90W. AT UPPER-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH CENTER NEAR 24N97W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THIS AREA AND FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF EXCEPT NEAR THE LOWS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. E-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE N-NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW INTO NE MEXICO BY THU MORNING WHILE THE LOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SUPPORTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 10N73W. A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH CONNECT TO THIS LOW AND ENHANCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND CUBA...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ON THE EASTERN BASIN GENERATING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS AREA SUPPORT TRADES OF 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 5-15 KT DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SUPPORTING RAINSHOWERS IN THE E-SE PORTION OF THE BASIN.


...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO HAITI. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND BY THU MORNING. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE RAINSHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ISLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS...ITS RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 68W-73W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CRISTOBAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS CUBA AFFECTING THEIR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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