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AXNT20 KNHC 050003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N13W TO 2N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 16W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 7W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 00N29W TO 2N38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA ACROSS THE E GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA/E YUCATAN CHANNEL SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO 25N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN 88W- 92W. ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 86W TO OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC OVER THE SE CONUS AND COVERS THE MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT SMOKE COVERS MOST OF THE SW GULF WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT NW OF THE AREA TUE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER W CUBA/E YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N83W ALONG 21N85W TO 17N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AT THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 77W-85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-87W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE TO COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MOST OF THE ISLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON HAITI. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THU BRING MORE SHOWERS FOR LAST PART OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 21N46W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NW TO 32N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N69W 23N72W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING ALONG 28N53W TO 25N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N AND W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 400 NM OFF THE MARYLAND COAST. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N13W TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N12W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 26N22W TO 24N29W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 24N47W. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT AND TUE INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT AND SHIFT N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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