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000
AXNT20 KNHC 020528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 02/0300 UTC...THE LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CENTER IS NEAR 21.0N 93.9W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AT 09 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TSTMS IS FROM 19N- 22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION EXTENDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 200 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 15N28W TO 07N28W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 26W- 31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS ALSO SURROUNDING THIS WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES S OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 48W-50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SOME DRY SAHARAN AIR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN ITS SOUTHERN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N71W TO 10N72W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N20W TO 07N27W TO 06N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N35W TO 10N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 07N58W. THE ONLY CONVECTION PRESENT NEAR THESE FEATURES ARE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W FLORIDA COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS...MAINLY ALONG 83W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN HINDERING THE FORMATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.


...HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PREVAILS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY LEFT BY THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 72W-80W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 27N51W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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