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AXNT20 KNHC 231801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 1500 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 56.0W OR ABOUT 270 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A WAVE OR TROUGH BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 52W-56W. SEE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FOR TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W- 77W WITH SEAS 10-14 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 39W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 4N-13N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE POSITION WAS RELOCATED E OF PREVIOUS ANALYSIS BASED ON DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E OF WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 37W-40W. DRY SAHARA AIR LAYER HINDERING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W WITH AXIS EXTENDING S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NOT DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 8N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N31W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N AND 45 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 40W-48W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N90W WITH A 1016 MB LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR NEW ORLEANS AT 30N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE LOW FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 89W-96W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE REGION TODAY BUT ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM STRONG DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER W THROUGH WED. EXPECT NORMAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING MAXIMUM TODAY AND THU WITH FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN A NEUTRAL MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IMPRESSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA ALONG GULF STREAM. SURFACE OBS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER GULF STREAM. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 27N80W TO 32N78W. A BROAD RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ANCHORED BY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALL ACROSS THE REGION E OF 78W WITH NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF SMALL AREAS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. TWO AND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ IN THE DEEP TROPICS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N63W IS SUPPORTING STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N36W TO 29N48W TO 17N58W IS SUPPORTING MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MUNDELL

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