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000
AXNT20 KNHC 270548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W INTO THE GULF TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE BY 27/1200 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 03W-11W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO SW TEXAS AND NW MEXICO. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SW TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. TWO MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ARE OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT...THE FIRST IS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 25N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTERIOR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THE OTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-99W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WERE NOTED ON EARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT. THESE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE BASIN BY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA N-NW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. MUCH OF THE RIDGING INFLUENCES THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS AN OVERALL WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LENDING TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REGION. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO WESTERN TEXAS. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST...SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N41W TO A BASE NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N39W TO 25N45W TO 22N55W AND THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE W-NW TO 27N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EAST AND 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT E OF 49W...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 49W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N57W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 40W-75W. FINALLY...ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N17W IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER GENERALLY E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ HUFFMAN

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