000
AXNT20 KNHC 220550
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 7N37W THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR
4N29W TO 1N40W 5-10 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED EARLIER TODAY TO
COINCIDE WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISRUPTS THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 38W-
41W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 33W-38W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N69W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO NEAR 10N70W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
64W-71W.
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 5N28W TO 5N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ E OF 24W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION
ACROSS S MEXICO/W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH S TO SE
RETURN FLOW COVERING THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE E
GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER
THE W GULF. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF
93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF S FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE GULF LATE FRI THEN
DRIFT SE THROUGH SUN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA
GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GIVING THE
AREA N OF 16N W OF 80W NW FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA IS UNDER NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-
80W AND S OF 10N W OF 80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE E CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TRADE WINDS IN GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
STRONGER NE WINDS JUST W OF WAVE AXIS AND OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA
THROUGH SUN.
HISPANIOLA...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COMPLETELY DIED OUT. AN UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS JUST TO THE NE TO THE ISLAND EXTENDING NW OVER THE W
ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLAND SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING E. THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S
CONTINUES TO TRACK W. THIS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN MAINLY TO
HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N78W
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OFF THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N75W AND
IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N66W NW TO BEYOND 32N75W. THIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-79W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N58W TO OVER FLORIDA AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 28N49W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE S EXTENDING
FROM 29N47W TO 25N49W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AZORES. A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF NE FLORIDA N OF GRAND BAHAMA THU. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW PORTION FRI AND DRIFT IN E ACROSS WATERS N OF 27N
THROUGH SUN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
PAW
