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000
AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N38W TO 5N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 77W/78W FROM OVER JAMAICA TO 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS TRAILING A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N38W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N41W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-88W. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N90W TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 30N TO JUST S OF NAPLES. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO NE TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON WHEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 31N79W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 27N70W. MOST OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N42W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N53W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 27N54W TO 24N55W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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