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AXNT20 KNHC 291800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W TO 02N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N35W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N82W SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. MAINLY E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 79W. E TO NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 79W. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.


...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO 20N70W AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT SANTIAGO TO BAINET AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N74W. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 36N60W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 31N60W TO 25N67W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. THIS COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N61W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THESE FRONTS EXTENDING FROM 26N60W TO 20N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N40W TO 20N40W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1039 MB CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PROVIDES ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL MERGE WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXITS THE SE US INTO THE W ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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