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AXNT20 KNHC 301808 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION PARAGRAPH ABOUT A MIDDLE LEVEL/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES ACROSS THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 7N48W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WAVE...AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N21W TO 6N33W...AND 5N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS...AFFECTING FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N84W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 27N88W AND 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N92W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W...TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE NORTH PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 21N97W 22N90W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A BIT OF WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.56 IN GUADALAJARA IN MEXICO...0.53 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...AND 0.38 IN MERIDA MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS... KMZG...KGVX...KVAF...KVQT...KIKT...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...IN SARASOTA WITH RAIN...AND JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA GORDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N63W TO 26N61W 22N58W...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/ PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W... AND FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 61W AND 72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 555W AND 62W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.25 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-PUERTO RICO-TO-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME...MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.20 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/1200 UTC FOR BERMUDA IS 0.73.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N53W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 18N53W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N52W 14N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE...AND WEAKENING...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT ARE IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ALSO FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...RELATED TO AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT ORIGINATE IN THE AREA THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF 32N.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 28N53W 21N64W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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