AXNT20 KNHC 292322
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.
Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 33.0N 80.4W at 29/2100 UTC or about 22 NM west-northwest of Charleston South Carolina, and is presently stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Bonnie is a sheared storm with convection mostly west of the center over portions of Georgia and South Carolina. Scattered moderate convection is from 32N-35N between 81W-83W. See the latest NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave extends from 12N38W to 02N41W moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 38W and 48W, and is near the leading edge of a surge of deep tropical moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-08N between 33W-40W.
Tropical wave extends from 15N67W to 05N69W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 64W and 74W and is embedded in moderate to high moisture. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the axis.
Tropical wave extends from 16N82W to 06N84W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 79W and 86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm west of the axis.
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N15W to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 04N40W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave near 04N42W and continues to South America near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of western Africa from 04N-07N between 11W-14W due to the monsoon trough.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 mb high is centered along the coast of Louisiana near 29N92W. A 1006 mb low is centered over central Mexico near 25N103W. 5-15 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over central and southern Florida, and most of Cuba east of 82W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over south Texas and north Mexico from 21N-30N between 97W-103W. Fair weather is over most of the Gulf. In the upper levels, a ridge is over Texas and the W Gulf. Elsewhere, an upper level trough is over the E Gulf and Florida. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.
A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 67W/69W. Another tropical wave is over the SW Caribbean along 82W/84W. See above. The remainder of the Caribbean has 10-15 kt tradewinds. Presently scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is over most of Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the eastern Caribbean east of 65W. In the upper levels the base of an upper level trough is over the Caribbean. Upper level diffluence east of the axis is enhancing the showers over the far eastern Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical waves to move west.
Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island. Expect more convection over the next 24 hours due to upper level diffluence.
See Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Bonnie. A 1026 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 33N64W. Another 1024 mb high is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 28N29W. A weak 1022 low is centered near 27N35W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the center. Another weak 1022 mb low is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 28N24W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the center. Of note in the upper levels, upper level diffluence southeast of the Florida upper level trough is producing isolated moderate convection east of the Bahamas from 20N-30N between 68W-76W.
For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine