AXNT20 KNHC 241021
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.
Tropical wave inland over Africa extends over Ghana moving west at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery shows well defined cyclonic turning near 08N02W. Surface observations shows this turning is not at the surface. Easterly wave diagnostics and well defined 850 mb relative vorticity in Hovmoller time sections confirms the placement of this feature. Scattered moderate convection is mostly west of the wave axis from 04N-10N between 02W-08W.
Tropical wave extends from 09N29W to 01N31W moving west at 15-20 kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery indicate the wave is in a low to moderate moist environment from the surface to 850 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 27W- 31W.
Tropical wave extends from 10N46W to 02N50W moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a broad surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. The wave also coincides with a mid-level 700 mb trough and associated positive relative vorticity maximum. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis from 06N-09N between 38W-42W. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 05N-07N between 49W-54W.
Tropical wave extends from 15N76W to 05N77W moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with the maximum moisture values seen in a surge of moisture on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are inland over north Colombia from 05N-10N between 73W-78W.
The monsoon trough extends over western Africa to the Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 04N29W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 04N31W and extends to 03N48W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave at 03N50W and continues to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-45W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
The tail end of a dissipating stationary front is over South Florida from 27N80W to the western Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. Scattered showers are south of the front over the Straits of Florida and western Cuba east of 84W. 10-15 kt SE surface flow is over the remainder of the Gulf. Further west, scattered showers are over South Texas and the western Gulf from 26N-29N between 95W-101W. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge axis is over Texas along 100W. An upper level trough axis is east of Florida along 77W. Thus the upper level winds over the Gulf are from the NW. Expect within the next 06 hours for the front to completely dissipate. Expect in 24 hours for a surface high to form over the Florida Panhandle with fair weather, while Texas continues to have showers and thunderstorms.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and N Colombia. See above. The surface pressure gradient over the central and western Caribbean Sea is relatively tight producing 15-25 kt tradewinds. Strongest winds are along the coast of N Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is over eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Scattered showers remain over Panama and Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, a trough is over the central Caribbean with axis along 80W enhancing convection. Expect the tropical wave to be the dominate feature over Caribbean for the next 24 hours.
Presently scattered moderate convection is over the island. Expect another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday especially during the afternoon and evening hours due to surface moisture inflow from the tropical Atlantic.
A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N70W to South Florida at 27N80W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are north of 20N between 68W-76W. A 1033 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N43W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 26N26W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Expect in 24 hours for the western Atlantic cold front to be extend from 31N67W to the central Bahamas. Also expect the eastern Atlantic front to move out of the area.
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