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000
AXNT20 KNHC 010542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TONIGHT W OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. SEAS BETWEEN 13 AND 20 FT IN NW TO N SWELL CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE US COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 13 FT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 16 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT W OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE S GULF DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 1N30W TO 0N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 13W AND 31W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW OVER SW TX WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING W FROM THE LOW ACROSS TX THAT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 29N96W THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO 24N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS BACK TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 93W TO THE TX COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE GULF. THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT WITH THE ENTIRE WARM FRONT MOVING NE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE- FORCE N OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 80W...AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THESE ISLANDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A COLD FRONT TO THE N OF THE ISLAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 23N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM S AND E OF THE FRONTS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N35W IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE US OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF N FL. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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