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AXNT20 KNHC 071318 CCA
TWDAT

AXNT20 KNHC DDHHMM
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


...STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 31N76W. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N79W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N75W TO 27N74W TO 21N75W. EXPECT STORM-FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 18 FEET TO 23 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 78W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 67W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE FRONT BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N16W TO 02N25W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W...AND FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 32W AND 52W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IS DIGGING THROUGH GEORGIA AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 90W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM EAST TO WEST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF 26N97W 21N90W...EXCEPT FOR THE PART THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N76W TO 23N79W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...SUGARLAND...IN TOMBALL... AND IN CONROE. LIFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...IFR/LIFR AT THE LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR/IFR AT NEW IBERIA. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...IFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE OF THE TAMPA-ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE ALBERT WHITTED AIRPORT IN ST. PETERSBURG. SARASOTA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR. MVFR...AT MARATHON KEY AND AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE RAIN THAT WAS BEING REPORTED SIX HOURS AGO ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS STOPPED...AT LEAST FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWARD TO HOMESTEAD.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 23N80W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA...TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO ROATAN OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAIN AND DRIZZLE AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 64W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND SOUTHEASTERLY 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 07/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... FOR BARAHONA AT 07/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR...OVERCAST AT 1400 FEET. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...AND THEN BECOME WESTERLY AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE WILL CHANGE AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES FROM NICARAGUA EASTWARD TO 70W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HAITI WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...PUSHING SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL DISSIPATE ABOUT BY THE END OF THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. WEST WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE EAST OF SAINT LUCIA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY DURING DAY TWO...PUSHING MORE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N60W 26N70W...TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN FLORIDA AND CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N64W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N64W TO 30N70W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...TO ROATAN OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N65W 26N76W...TO CUBA NEAR 23N79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.09 IN BERMUDA.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W EASTWARD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N31W AND 15N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 29N FROM 30W EASTWARD.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W EASTWARD. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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