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AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W- 22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.


...HISPANIOLA...

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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