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AXNT20 KNHC 191034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W- 40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE E GULF AND ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO 28N89W. A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM 27N94W TO 29N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEPICTED IN OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SW GULF
...EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO 19N92W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS FEATURE. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 27N AND W OF 91W WHERE A NW FLOW DOMINATES. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TO DIMINISH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17 AND E OF 70W...AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-74W...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE DEPICTED. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NOTED N OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-87W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 32N69W TO ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N56W. FROM THIS POINT...THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 24N44W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM 24N44W TO 31N23W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 65W SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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