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AXNT20 KNHC 281120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA N OF 28N AND E OF FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W TO 66W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N33W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-40W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N95W. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE BASIN. A SLIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS W OF 90W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF TO DRIFT E BEFORE DISSIPATING. A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN AFTER THAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO HAITI. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS S FROM THE FRONT THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN FROM 19N74W TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEARLINE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS W OF HAITI...E OF JAMAICA AND N OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 18N69W TO 15N72W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AFFECTING LA MONA PASSAGE AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND S CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHICH KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE SHEAR LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS W OF THE SHEARLINE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER HAITI TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.


...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER HAITI AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING CONVECTION AS THE FRONT AND TROUGH MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND STALL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W TO 32N69W. THE SECOND FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N73W TO 32N61W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FRONTS THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. TO THE E OF THE FRONTS...A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N69W TO 24N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 56W-68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N30W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N36W TO 28N36W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO HAITI TO MERGE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND STALL. THE COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING E MERGING WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ ERA

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