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AXNT20 KNHC 091116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLC GALE WARNING...A CENTER OF LOW PRES IS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT WITH SEAS FROM 11 TO 15 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED MORNING...HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF HISPANIOLA EARLY THU MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THU MORNING WITH WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 12 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A CENTER OF LOW PRES IS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N81W TO 22N90W TO 20N96W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 87W...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY WED MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO 01S51W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 22W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE HALF EASTERN U.S. AND THE NW ATLC WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTER OF LOW PRES OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N81W TO 22N90W TO 20N96W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 87W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF FROM LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL WATERS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE BASIN LATER THIS EVENING...LEAVING IT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES ANCHORED OVER NW WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 978 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 43N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N56W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 10N81W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 19N TO 84W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT PROVIDE STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER EASTERN BASIN. THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER ATLC WATERS NE OF HISPANIOLA EARLY THU MORNING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THU MORNING WITH WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 12 FT.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT MAINTAINS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO PANAMA COASTAL WATERS IS FORECAST TO STALL THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING TUE AND WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 978 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 43N59W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 30N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO 23N64W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT. A CENTER OF LOW PRES IS OVER NORTH CAROLINA ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 36N74W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W...THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE HAPPENING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 11 TO 15 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE GALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE W OF 60W. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL START DISSIPATING WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE SW N ATLC EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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