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AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NEARBY ITCZ ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 6N26W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG INLAND IN AFRICA...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 7N FROM 34W EASTWARD...AND FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 57W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE...THAT IS RUNNING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN-FLOW SURFACE WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...HAZE AND VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 MILES ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KBBF...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL... AND KHQI.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TEXAS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. FAIR SKIES ARE IN THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW AND MARY ESTHER IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND IN APALACHICOLA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE IN TALLAHASSEE...AND IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED FROM NAPLES TO PUNTA GORDA.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE WIND FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA CONSISTS OF...MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERNMOST SECTIONS...BECOMING WESTERLY THE REST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS REACHING HISPANIOLA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF THE ISLAND. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA IS AT THE EDGE OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 28N59W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA TO CENTRAL CUBA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS. NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH AN HISPANIOLA-TO- NORTHERN BAHAMAS RIDGE THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH...FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A PUERTO RICO-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AN EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS-TO- PUERTO RICO-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL BRING WEST-TO- SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 45W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N13W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N13W TO 29N24W...BEYOND 32N34W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 45W EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 31N13W-TO-32N34W TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N57W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N57W TO 23N61W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 23N61W TO 23N65W TO 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 51W AND 61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND 77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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