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AXNT20 KNHC 011147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N33W TO 3N34W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N51W TO 9N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W 7N27W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-47W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 25N90W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER TAMPA BAY CONTINUING ALONG 27N85W 27N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS NEAR THE BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF W LOUISIANA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-93W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND EXITS THE GULF BY THU NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA THEN INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N W OF 80W TO OVER NE NICARAGUA...N HONDURAS...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENTS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU EVENING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING.


...HISPANIOLA... SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH EARLY FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N65W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N72W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N73W TO 28N78W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 29N71W TO 25N74W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO THE FRONT W OF 70W AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N59W TO 24N60W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR 27N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 26N68W 27N58W TO 32N55W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N55W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 22N56W TO 16N57W. THE AREA BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 17N55W TO 21N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY THU AND STALL BETWEEN 27N-28N EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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