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AXNT20 KNHC 311736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W...OR 560 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS MOVING W-NW 15 KT. THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MARKED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 17N32W TO 09N32W IS MOVING W 10- 15 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE NEAR 09N32N. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 35W FROM 08N-12N.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N58W TO 09N57W IS MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS TO THE W-NW OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N51W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 11N25W TO 05N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 13W-20W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WITH NO WELL-DEFINED FEATURES AS NOTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO ORLANDO TO NEAR NAPLES AND THEN TURNS WESTWARD TO 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF. SKIES ARE MOST CLEAR N OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED SHAPED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONG TSTMS IS LOCATED WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 08.5N77.5W.


...HISPANIOLA... THE ISLAND IS NEAR THE BASE OF A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORECAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N66W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W. BROAD RIDGING ALOFT LIES NW OF THE CIRCULATION IN THE AREA ROUGHLY N OF 24N W OF 70W. A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 33N48W AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. RIDGING ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 25N E OF 40W INTO AFRICA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 25N57W TO 22N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N35W THROUGH A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 29N43W TO 32N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ CAB

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