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AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/2100 UTC IS IN THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.2N 91.7W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 78 NM TO THE WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ESE AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 82W-90W.




...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 185 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N23W TO 05N24W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 09N AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 24W-26W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 04N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING AN AREA OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 130 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N57W TO 07N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE THIS...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS VISIBLE ALONG 13N FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 57W-60W AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 08N27W TO 08N36W...AND STARTS AGAIN FROM 07N41W TO 05N48W TO 09N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 26W-36W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. NINE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS FROM 30N93W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W AND CONNECTION TO A 1002 MB LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 39N70W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 26N BETWEEN 82W-88W. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF N OF 25N WHILE 15-20 KT NE FLOW WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION ARE PREVAILING S OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 81W BETWEEN 18N-23N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 17N BETWEEN 72W-81W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF E CUBA...JAMAICA AND S HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS E OF 71W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ENTER THE BASIN MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N80W AND CONNECTION TO A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 39N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM W OF 58W BETWEEN 27N-45N. TO THE E...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. TO THE NE OF THIS FEATURE...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT E OF 29W BETWEEN 30N-44N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW FROM 30N29W TO 23N32W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N29W ENHANCING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RIVERA

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