Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 162359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EST WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S28W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...AND CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR/1N TO 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 280 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 5S28W 1S28W 1S31W 1N34W 2N39W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N50W 4N40W 2N30W 1N22W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN GHANA TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...AND IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 19N91W STILL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 89W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N95W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO SITES...KVAF...KGUL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT KHQI...KGBK... KVBS...KEIR...KSPR...KIPN...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF LOUISIANA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA GORDA AND NAPLES...AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS MARATHON IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N81W TO 21N89W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE PRIMARILY...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.


...HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVER LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- BAHAMAS/CUBA RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N57W 23N57W 17N57W...TO 12N64W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO PHASE WITH THE ALREADY- EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IN THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 34N29W 24N46W THAT IS DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH IS PART OF THE ALREADY-EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N29W TO 32N32W TO 24N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N25W AND 25N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 23N30W TO 18N40W TO 15N50W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO 25N80W THEN STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF... NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 47W. EXPECT ALSO EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 31N65W TO 22N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

Home