AXNT20 KNHC 241729

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...A 1004 mb surface low near 30N76W is
progressing ne at around 20 kt while occluding. A cold front
extends s to the Windward Passage, and a warm front extends 360
nm to the ese. Southeasterly gale force winds precede the warm
front, while strong to near gale force cylonic flow is observed
elsewhere across the subtropics between 63W and 71W. The low
will lift n of 32N by this evening, with associated winds
diminishing to 20 kt or less, and seas subsiding to less than 8
ft by early Sun morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends ssw from
the from the African coast near 06N10W to 02N16W where
scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which
continues sw to 02N26W to beyond the equator at 36W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 75 nm
either side of lines from 04N08W to 01N16W, and from 03N15W to
01N29W to 01N41W.



Moderate to fresh return flow is noted across the gulf to the e
of a cold front currently along the Texas coast with locally
broken low clouds observed to the east of 90W. Strong ne flow
will develop tonight and continue into early Sat across the nw
waters behind the front which should extend from the Mississippi
Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight and pass through the
Straits of Florida on Sun afternoon.


A cold front extends from central Cuba to near Belize and is
preceded by a surface trough that extends s from east Cuba to
central Nicaragua. These boundaries should merge into a single
feature that will gradually dissipate over the nw Caribbean
through the upcoming weekend. Isolated showers are occurring
within 120 nm e of the surface trough, and within about 60 nm of
the cold front. Similar activity is observed over the Leewards.
The usual trade wind flow is disrupted at this time keeping
winds generally light to moderate, but expected to resume to
moderate e flow late in the weekend except becoming strong along
the nw coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.


Isolated showers will continue to stream n across the island
through tonight.


See the Special Features section. A large area of overcast low
and mid level clouds, with embedded showers and few tstms are
occurring to the n of 23N between 64W and 74W. A stationary
front extends sw from 32N37W to 20N64W with scattered showers
observed within 120 nm of the front to the n of 25N. The
remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge extending sw from a 1027 mb high pressure centered
near 35W25W.

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