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000
AXNT20 KNHC 010540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS BEEN RELOCATED AND NOW ANALYZED FROM 12N32W TO 2N34W. WAVE IS PRECEDING THE BROAD SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BUT DUE TO DRY AIR OVER THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N49W TO 6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 0000 UTC ANALYSIS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N20W 6N25W TO 5N37W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 31W-48W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 25N91W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS MELBOURNE TO TAMPA BAY TO A 1009 MB LOW JUST OFFSHORE NEAR 28N83W CONTINUING ALONG 27N88W 29N94W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N- 27N E OF 87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AND INLAND OVERNIGHT WHILE E HALF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W- 82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS WELL S OF PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN WED EVENING REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N67W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N75W TO 26N74W SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N75W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N78W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 23N79W ALONG 26N73W TO 31N70W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N61W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR 26N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 21N58W ALONG 26N58W TO 32N56W...AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 60W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 14N57W. THE AREA BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50W IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N56W TO TO 19N53W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE E ACROSS N PORTIONS THROUGH THU AND DRAG THE FRONT SLOWLY S TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE WEAK FRONT LINGERS FROM 27N70W E-NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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