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AXNT20 KNHC 281022
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 04N08W TO 02N13W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 03S23W TO 03S30W 01S37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05S E OF 04W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W AND 33W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL S OF 06N W OF 46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE SW N ATLC ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WHERE IS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N93W. RIDGING AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SUPPORT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 91W. LIGHTER VARIABLE WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 78W. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR DOMINATING ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN W OF 80W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEARLY 80W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO BELIZE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GREAT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.


...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND WHILE SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SURROUNDS ITS ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT NO SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO NEARLY 80W WHERE IT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO BELIZE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GREAT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR WESTERN N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS ALONG 31N73W SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NW HONDURAS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N35W SW TO 22N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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