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AXNT20 KNHC 251748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N25W TO 10N26W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N53W TO 7N54W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W TO 13N72W MOVING W 20 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N26W TO 9N50W TO 8N59W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 15W-18W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE S OF 20N...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTERED NEAR 24N85W DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NE GULF. A VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN WHICH ALONG MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 80W-85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR DETAILS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC BASIN IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W AND 83W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA BY SAT MORNING WHILE A NEW WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


...HISPANIOLA...

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS A TROPICAL WAVE STARTS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ISLAND. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT HAITI BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N71W...WITH A STATIONARY 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N54W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED AT 28N61W. EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 63W-68W AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM 32N30W TO 29N38W THE REMAINDER BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ATLC SUN AND MON WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ DGS

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