621
AXNT20 KNHC 022339
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jul 3 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has an axis along 26W in the eastern Atlantic,
from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
08.5-11.5N between the W coast of Africa and 26W.
Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of
14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
observed along the southern portion of the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 10-kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
observed from 08N to 12N between 46W and 55W. Morning satellite
scatterometer data showed a modest surge in surface winds behind
this wave, south of 20N between 40W and 50W, where seas are to 7
ft.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N,
moving westward at near 15 kt. Very dry and stable conditions
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean and thus no
significant convection is associated with this wave at this time.
A tropical wave has crossed Central America and is now across
far eastern Mexico along 92W extending southward into the eastern
Pacific Ocean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20.5N16W to 13N19W and to 09N39W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N42W to 09N49W and then from 07.5N52W to the coast
of French Guiana. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
07N-10N between 31W-36W. All other convection along the monsoon
trough and ITCZ is primarily associated with the Atlantic
tropical waves, described in the Tropical Waves section above.
The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW
Caribbean. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 11.5N.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection prevails across
portions of the NE Gulf, with the strongest activity currently
within 60 nm of the Florida coast across the Big Bend. High
pressure of 1019 mb is centered across the northwest central
Gulf, while a trough extends from the central Bay of Campeche
northward to 23N, while a second trough is across the NE Gulf,
where broad gentle to locally moderate cyclonic flow prevails.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas across the
remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, weak high pressure will meander across the NW
Gulf into the weekend, while a weak cold front will sag into the
northern Gulf Thu, then stall. An area of low pressure could
develop near the southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this
weekend along this weakening frontal boundary. Environmental
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow
development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form
in this region over the weekend or early next week while the
system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the
southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida
coast. There is a medium chance of tropical formation through the
next 7 days.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak high pressure center east of Bermuda extends a subtropical
ridge W-SW to the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida. A modest
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics is resulting in fresh to strong easterly winds in
the south-central and SW Caribbean. These winds are supporting
rough seas in these waters, peaking around 11 ft offshore of
Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas
are noted in the north-central Caribbean extending to the south
coast of Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere. Dry and stable atmospheric conditions dominate the
basin this evening, with the only significant clouds and
convection noted across SW portions near the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will
support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most
of the central basin through Fri, then will become confined
south of 15N and between 69W and 75W through the weekend.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough axis is located just offshore the coast of
Florida, along 78W, and is supporting scattered moderate
convection N of 25N and W of 71W. Another upper level trough,
extending from a broad upper low near 25N57W across the Leeward
Islands to Venezuela is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 20N-24N between 49W-58W. At the surface, the
basin is generally dominated by a large ridge, with both the
Bermuda and Azores highs N of the area, separated by a surface
trough that extends into area waters from 32N45W to 27N56W. The
associated pressure gradient south of Azores high is leading to
fresh to strong NE winds across areas N of 18N and E of 32W,
strongest winds funneling in between the Canary Islands. Seas are
analyzed at 6-9 ft in this region. Elsewhere to the west of 32W
and south of 20N, winds are generally moderate to fresh, becoming
SE to S around the western periphery of the ridge to the west of
70W, with moderate seas to 7 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic
north of 20N is seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6
ft.
For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure will remain east
of Bermuda through the weekend. A weak cold front will move off
the SE U.S coast Thu night, then stall over the far NW zones Fri
into the weekend. An area of low pressure could develop near the
southeast U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts by this weekend along the
weakening frontal boundary. Environmental conditions appear only
marginally conducive for some slow development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend
or early next week while the system drifts northward or
northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly
across the west- central Florida coast. There is a medium chance
of tropical formation through the next 7 days.
$$
Stripling
