Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 301807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 19.9W AT 30/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 226 NM E-SE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 16N E OF 24W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TRPCL WAVE IS WITHIN 550 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS NEAR 51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS SW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. NO CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR WITHIN ITS ENVIRONMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS NEAR 65W...MOVING W AT 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W OF T.S. FRED FROM 09N23W TO 08N30W TO 07N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N40W AND CONTINUES TO 10N48W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. FRED AND THE TRPCL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 28W-38W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N82W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N84W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 85W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 19N93W WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 22N89W. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL WATERS. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OFF THE S-SE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N W OF 78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST. THE OTHER ARE OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SEE TRPCL WAVES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT. NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THE WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN TOMORROW SUPPORTING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL BASIN.


...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A TRPCL WAVE ALONG WITH A DIVERGENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER ADJACENT WATERS S OF THE ISLAND AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MONA PASSAGE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUE TO MOVE W TODAY...SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLAND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE BASIN IS TROPICAL STORM FRED EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF T.S. ERIKA EXTENDS FROM OVER N FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF 76W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N48W SW TO 26N59W TO 24N68W AND ENHACES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

Home