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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N20W TO 8N23W. ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 4N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N23W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-22W AND FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-51W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER SE ALABAMA TO OVER THE E GULF AND IS SUPPORTING AT 19/0900 UTC A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INLAND OVER FLORIDA THEN RETURNING INTO THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS TO 23N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR NAPLES OVER KEY WEST AND THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER N FLORIDA THIS MORNING PUSHING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF. BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE GULF. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N GULF TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W ALONG 15N70W TO 16N80W COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...E CUBA AND JAMAICA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH MON MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC THROUGH WED.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HAITI INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES OVER E CUBA SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUN TO TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AMPLIFIES N OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W TO BEYOND 32N78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC BY EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 31N78W LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO CENTRAL CUBA AND TO NEAR 31N76W BY LATE SUN NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT TO E CUBA. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE REGION AND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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