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AXNT20 KNHC 201151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 20/1015 UTC...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W...FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N43W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED ONLY TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND SOME IS IN THE ITCZ.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 12N22W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 6N30W AND 9N43W TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF...BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD.

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.5N 95.5W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 23N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND 92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KMZG... KEMK...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KSPR...KGRY...KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

ROCKPORT TEXAS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN FORT MYERS. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT MARATHON KEY. THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS AROUND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE- TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.22 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N72W IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO PANAMA...WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...AND BEYOND THE SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. NUMEROUS STRONG ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.


...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS AROUND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED AT PUERTO PLATA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SOME ARE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OTHER OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE EASTWARD. A RIDGE WILL END UP ACROSS THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO 36 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W TO 28N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N77W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W 23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W 29N70W 29N81W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTHERN SIDE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W... TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N44W... AND FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 20N38W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N22W TO 24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N20W AND 20N28W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N28W TO 21N34W AND 30N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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