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AXNT20 KNHC 192321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 4N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 0N30W TO 1S41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-4S BETWEEN 32W-44W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING SE. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N83W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF...AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 26N E OF 87W. RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE. ELSEWHERE...THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS FOG OR STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-28N W OF 93W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NE GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S ALABAMA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA TO SHIFT E TO THE W ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVELS NW FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

RADAR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND JACKSONVILLE. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 29N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N33W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N22W TO 26N30W TO 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 65W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. ZONAL FLOW IS BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC BE N OF 26N W OF 70W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 28N65W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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