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AXNT20 KNHC 050600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO START DURING THURSDAY MORNING HOURS WEST OF A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST. GALE CONDITIONS W OF FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N W OF 41W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N49W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN PROVIDES WITH SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE S OF 27N. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING REPORTED N OF 27N W OF 92W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF LATER THIS MORNING INTRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES AS WELL AS GALE FORCE CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY GENERATING TRADE WIND SHOWERS THIS MORNING. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.


...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N40W SW TO 26N51W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT IN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE N OF 30N LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER ATLC W AND E OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N49W AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 39N38W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ NR

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