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AXNT20 KNHC 281747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 03N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N30W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S AND 06N BETWEEN 08W AND 24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 26W AND 49W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N94W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. W TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OVER THE NW BASIN...E TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE SW BASIN...AND NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS FL WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXITS THE TX/LA COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND W HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 17N75W. THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR LINE AT 17N75W AND EXTENDS TO NEAR THE PANAMA COAST AT 10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W TO 16N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE SHEAR LINE AND STATIONARY FRONT ARE FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.


...HISPANIOLA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND EASTERN HAITI AT CAP HATIEN NEAR 20N72W TO CHARDONNIERES NEAR 18N74W AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND FROM CABRERA NEAR 20N70W TO PEDEMALES NEAR 18N72W. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONGOING ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SECOND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TO 31N61W TO 29N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO HAITI NEAR 20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM 31N59W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...A WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N39W TO 22N37W AND IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 35W TO 39W. 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE E ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO

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