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AXNT20 KNHC 241158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 6N24W 4N36W AND 3N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W AND 30W. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT ALONG 30W. SOME OF IT CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND SOME OF IT CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD.


...DISCUSSION...


...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 92W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS...SET TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE HAS MOVED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO GUATEMALA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXTH...KVBS...

KGBK...KGRY HAS LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KSPR HAS VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KIPN HAS CLOUD CEILINGS AT 7000 FEET...KIKT...KVOA... KVKY...KMIS HAS A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AND RAINSHOWERS...SOME WITH THUNDER...ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND PATCHES OF RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. THE SAME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA/SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.


...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE MONA PASSAGE WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THAT ENDS UP IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BECOMES DIFFLUENT NEAR 14N56W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE AREA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.


...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 275 NM TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND IT ENDS UP ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER STARTS AT A LOCATION THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 360 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND IT ENDS UP AT A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 410 NM TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.


...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N83W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 22N44W AND 16N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N40W 26N50W 25N60W 25N68W AND 26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N69W TO 30N71W AND BEYOND 32N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS OCCURRING IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM 32N TO 36N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 31N35W 28N38W 23N45W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W...TO 26N95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N58W...THROUGH 32N63W...TO 28N65W...AND TO 26N67W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO THE 32N32W 25N60W 25N68W 32N70W FRONTAL BOUNDARY... BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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