AXNT20 KNHC 240524

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... A partially occluded 1000 mb low is centered near 33N32W with the associated cold front entering the discussion area near 32N29W extending SW to 28N33W then W-NW to 30N42W. Near gale to gale force N-NW winds are occurring generally N of 29N W of the front to 38W and are expected to persist through Friday morning and gradually diminish as the cold front weakens across the eastern Atlc waters. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 05N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N23W to 06N54W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 03W-13W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-12N between 16W-34W.


GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the basin with axis extending from over southern Georgia near 32N83W to a base over the SW Gulf near 19N93W. This troughing supports a 1009 mb low centered in the vicinity of the Tampa Bay region near 28N82W and the associated cold front extending SW to the Yucatan peninsula near 20N89W. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail this evening across much of the basin with widely scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring S of 27N E of 87W...including portions of the Florida peninsula and Florida Straits. The low will move NE and into the SW North Atlc region by Friday as the front continues across the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters clearing east of the basin by Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 09N76W to 16N79W with scattered showers and tstms occurring between 75W-84W. This activity extends farther south across Costa Rica and Panama as the monsoon trough axis extends along 08N. Most of this convection is supported aloft by overall divergent southwesterly flow aloft between a middle to upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and a middle to upper level ridge anchored over the eastern Caribbean near 16N67W. Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate trades are occurring E of 78W. Little change is expected through Sunday night.

...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are possible across western portions of the island this evening as more active convection lies across eastern Cuba and the waters surrounding Jamaica in association with a favorable divergent environment within southwesterly flow aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the SW North Atlc region near 32N66W and extends westward to 31N78W then SW into a 1009 mb low centered in the vicinity of the Tampa Bay region. The middle to upper level trough supporting the low remains over much of the Gulf of Mexico...a favorable divergent environment remains over much of the SW North Atlc generating scattered showers and tstms generally W of 68W. The low is expected to move into the SW North Atlc waters by Friday with persistent precipitation and convection expected E of the cold front extending southward from the low. Farther east...a gradually weakening 1008 mb low is centered near 33N60W with the associated cold front extending from the low to 28N65W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring E of the low from 31N-35N between 48W-58W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Special Features 1000 mb low centered near 33N32W. While the near gale to gale force conditions are associated with the secondary wave of energy behind a cold front...the remnant cold front extends from 30N22W to 21N39W with scattered showers and tstms occurring from 120 nm either side of the front N of 25N.

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