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AXNT20 KNHC 300006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N40W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 46W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NW ALABAMA...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA TO 28N90W WITH NO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT WILL STALL...THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY...FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT DOMINATING S OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 66W EXTENDS SW TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH SW OF JAMAICA ALONG 18N78W TO 10N82W THAT ENHANCES SHOWERS BETWEEN ITS AXIS AND THE CENTRAL AMERICA COASTLINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO NORTHERN PANAMA. A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS AND S OF PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. N OF 17N AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS ARE FROM THE NE IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. TRADES OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.


...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN IT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN ISLAND AND THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION...ENTERING THE SW N ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N57W TO 22N65W WITH TAIL REACHING NW HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N57W TO 21N62W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 21N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN WITH A WEAKNESS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N37W TO 21N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 33W-39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

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