AXNT20 KNHC 240516

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 09N55W to 18N54W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing
between 51W-60W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity in
the vicinity of the wave axis near 12N. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N13W to
06N29W to 07N38W. Scattered moderate and widely scattered strong
convection is from 02N-08N between 15W-26W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-10N between 11W-15W...and from 03N-13N
between 26W-34W.


A middle to upper level ridge is anchored over the Gulf basin this
evening with water vapor imagery indicating a middle to upper
level shortwave trough progressing eastward over central Texas and
north-central Mexico. With the ridging in place...overall stable
conditions prevail with satellite imagery showing middle to upper
level cloudiness over much of the western portions due to the
approaching trough. At the surface...a ridge continues to be
anchored by a 1024 mb high centered over SE Alabama and the
Florida panhandle providing mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds
across the Gulf. The ridge is forecast to be reinforced by a
another ridge settling into the Great Lakes region Monday night
into Tuesday increasing the pressure gradient across the region
with resulting winds increasing into moderate to fresh breeze
levels across the eastern Gulf and Florida Straits. This overall
synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Thursday night.

The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over Cuba and a portion of the NW Caribbean
supporting a weakening cold front analyzed across eastern Cuba the
Cayman Islands to northern Belize near 18N88W. While the front
remains fairly precipitation-free...to the SE low-level
convergence and ample middle to upper level dynamics are
supporting isolated showers and possible isolated tstms within
120 nm either side of a line from the Windward Passage near 20N73W
SW to 16N80W to the coast of Nicaragua near 12N84W. Overall
moderate to occasional fresh NE winds prevail across the NW
Caribbean N of the weakening front. Elsewhere...the eastern and
central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies with gentle to
moderate trades prevailing. These trades are expected to persist
through Monday.

Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring
across the island as maximum middle to upper level diffluence lies
to the E of an upper level trough with axis over eastern Cuba and
Jamaica. This diffluence along with a weak low-level surface
convergence zone is generating the unsettled weather this evening.
Increased probability of widely scattered showers and tstms is
expected through Monday as the frontal troughing lingers across
the region.

A broad middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North
Atlc supporting a cold front extending from 32N59W SW to near the
Turks and Caicos Islands to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring N of 22N between the front and 56W.
Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring across Hispaniola
and the adjacent coastal waters N of 19N between 68W-74W. W of
the cold front...gentle to moderate N-NW winds prevail across the
SW North Atlc as high pressure anchors itself across the SE CONUS
and Florida peninsula. Farther east...an upper level low is
centered near 22N51W and continues to advect tropical moisture
northward across portions of the central Atlc. Given the favorable
middle to upper level dynamics in place...scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring from 10N-22N between 37W-49W. This
area remains within the southern periphery of a surface ridge
anchored across the central Atlc by a 1028 mb high centered N of
the discussion area near 36N39W. Otherwise...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a weakening cold front
analyzed from West Africa near 26N15W W to 25N30W then NW to near
30N44W. With the parent 990 mb surface low to the front centered
W-SW of the Iberian peninsula near 40N18W...Fresh to occasional
strong N-NW winds continue filtering in across the NE portion of
the discussion area. The low is expected to remain nearly
stationary through Tuesday night then begin weakening while
drifting SW through Thursday.

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