Home


000
AXNT20 KNHC 050002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...


...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL EXTEND NEAR 31N75W TO 23N80W ON THU SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT S TO SW GALE- FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THU EVENING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W CONTINUING TO 03N16W TO 02N30W TO 01N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 01N35W AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 01N45W TO 0N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 12N46W TO 02N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN S TO A BASE OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPA NEAR 28N82W SW TO 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS S OF 20N W OF 95W AND SW TO W WINDS N OF 24N E OF FRONT TO 82W...BOTH REGIONS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. MODERATE NORTHERLIES ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E-SE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING WHEN ITS TAIL MOVES TO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF AT THU SUNRISE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH BASE NEAR THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE SUPPORT NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING E TO 80W. A SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN SE FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES COVERS THE BASIN AS A WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THU MORNING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND HISPANIOLA FROM LATE THU THROUGH SUNDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE WINDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN THU MORNING WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC BY SE FLOW ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 72W. THREE SURFACE TROUGHS PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...NONE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 25N61W...THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 25N50W AND THE THIRD EXTENDS FROM 24N39W TO 18N39W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC WATERS BY EARLY THU MORNING AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ RAMOS

Home