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AXNT20 KNHC 241750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 4N47W TO 13N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX ALONG A BROADER 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET N OF 9N LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION REMAINS SUPPRESSED N OF 08N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N65W TO 19N61W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AND INCORPORATES THE NORTHERN POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX OF A 700 MB TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-67W...INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FOLLOWS E OF THE WAVE WITH LEADING EDGE NOTED E OF 60W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH S MEXICO EXTENDS S OF 20N ALONG 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 93W-96W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 10N25W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N25W TO 09N40W TO 04N51W. EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE...THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN TIP OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA W-SW TO 25N90W TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG 27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N84W MOVING INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING FROM 14N- 16N BETWEEN 61W-71W. MOST OF THIS IS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH STRETCHED OUT REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DEGENERATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W-63W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WEST AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE E CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR GALE EACH MORNING NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF WEEK.


...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FROM MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ISLAND. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EAST OF THE ISLAND AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 29N76W. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM 32N61W TO 23N63W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 29N46W ALONG 28N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE OCEANIC AREA EXCEPT IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVES NOTED MOVING W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IN CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 46W. A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SAHARAN DUST STRETCHING MOSTLY NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MUNDELL

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