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AXNT20 KNHC 131145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BEGINNING MONDAY 02/15 AT 0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COASTAL AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES TO 02N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 00N26W TO 02S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 23W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO 30N86W TO 29N86W TO 29N94W. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N93W WHICH ANCHORS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI...TEXAS...TO NEAR NAPLES...FLORIDA. LIGHT WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W AND CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 18N76W TO NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE FRONT...AND 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE NE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY W OF 73W OVER WESTERN HAITI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVER W HAITI THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 0900 UTC EXTENDED INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N73W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE...FLORIDA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY E OF 77W. STRONG SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 77W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N53W TO 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THIS FRONT BETWEEN 64W AND 77W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N40W SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N67W TO S FL BY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NW OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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