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000
AXNT20 KNHC 311007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01S28W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERS OF 1023 MB OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W AND 1022 MB OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N74W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE S AND W GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE N AND NE GULF. DRY AIR AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN TRADE WIND MOISTURE E OF 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE ISLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERS OF 1023 MB OVER THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W AND 1022 MB OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N74W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS TO 23N60W TO 21N68W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO HAITI NEAR 20N73W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 70 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N36W TO 24N39W. THIS TROUGH WAS A REFLECTION OF A UPPER LOW NEAR 29N30W THAT IS NOW BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT OFF THE E US COAST WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N FL COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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