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000
AXNT20 KNHC 220531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...AND MOVE EAST OF AREA WED NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W TO 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 45W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO NEAR JALAPA MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN S OF THE FRONT AND E OF 87W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY ACROSS THE GULF REGION WHILE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 27N85W TO 22N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF ON TUE. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MAINLY SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG NW TO N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 0000 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N79W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 31N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND FRONT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST REGION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA TODAY. A 1023 MB HIGH IS FARTHER E NEAR 30N62W AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE ROUGHLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STRETCHING FROM 31N39W TO 27N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N16W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND SW TO NEAR 26N37W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N18W. LOOKING AHEAD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR EAST FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC REGION WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N77W TO W CUBA THU...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT...AND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ GR

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