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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W MOVING SLOWLY E. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

A 1001 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W DRIFTING W. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N50W TO 4N54W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 48W-57W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N12W AND CONTINUES TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N15W TO 5N22W TO 8N28W TO 6N40W TO 8N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 28W-34W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 17N94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER S...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND S FLORIDA...FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 80W-86W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 79W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE ISLAND WED...WITH CONVECTION E OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO NEAR 28N70W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AT 29N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W MOVING NNE AT 10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 23N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N- 31N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A 1001 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W DRIFTING W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N28W TO 24N32W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N56W ENHANCING CONVECTION. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N28W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA

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