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AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO 7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 49W-52W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO 27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG 27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.


...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ PAW

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