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AXNT20 KNHC 200002 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Updated Hurricane Information

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located near 17.0N 64.2W or about 50 nm southeast of Saint Croix, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 909 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 150 kt with gusts to 180 kt, a Category 5. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. The tiny eye of Maria will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 20/0000 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm south- southwest of Nantucket Massachusetts near 37.5N 71.2W, moving north-northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Convection associated with Jose is well north of the discussion area. The center of Jose is expected to remain well offshore and pass well to the east of the northeast U.S. coast through Thursday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave west of Africa extends from 19N21W to 07N25W, and is moving west at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with the wave as it interacts with the convergence zone is from 07N-13N between 21W-25W.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending from 21N82W to 11N85W, moving west at 10-15 kt. CIRA TPW imagery indicates extensive dry air in the northern wave environment. Shallow moisture and diffluent flow aloft support isolated convection south of 15N between 80W-84W.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging with light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail in the basin around a 1017 mb high centered near 28N88W. Moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche and west of the Yucatan peninsula are associated with the northern part of a tropical wave in EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence will continue to support fair weather conditions through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Category 5 major Hurricane Maria is moving across the northeast Caribbean waters, and will approach St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands tonight and move across Puerto Rico Wednesday. See the special features section for further details. Low level wind convergence east of a tropical wave in the western Caribbean is producing a large area of moderate to strong convection in the SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 79W-82W. Expect the wave to continue moving west with convection mainly east-southeast of the wave axis. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds west of 70W, with the remainder of the basin experiencing cyclonic winds associated with Hurricane Maria.


...HISPANIOLA...

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are diminishing across the western past of the Dominican Republic. Weather conditions will deteriorate significantly across the island Wednesday from the outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. The eye of Maria is forecast to move northwest, passing over or very close to the northern coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday with destructive winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricanes Maria and Jose. The remnant circulation of T.D. Lee is located near 17N45W and are expected to move northwest during the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 200 nm east and northeast of the low center. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N41W to 29N42W to 26N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Mundell

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