000
AXNT20 KNHC 100601
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W TO 1N27W TO 0N35W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 6S-4N BETWEEN 19W-26W.
...DISCUSSION...
...THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN U.S.
STATES AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS INTO THE BASIN. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH WITH AXIS CROSSING TENNESSEE SW TO WESTERN
TEXAS INTO NW MEXICO SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE
WESTERN BASIN AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W TO 25N96W TO
20N95W TO 18N95W AND THEN INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA DEPICTS
THERE IS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
27N91W TO 23N91W TO 18N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 23N. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF
10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT SE BY TUE MORNING AND RETURN
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF. BY TUE MORNING THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE GALVESTON TEXAS.
...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO NOTABLE FEATURES OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.
ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND W OF 70W AND NORTHWESTERLIES ELSEWHERE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WHICH TAIL EXTENDS TO COASTAL WATERS OF NE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS OVER HISPANIOLA...PARTS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. A MOIST AIRMASS IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF PUERTO RICO WHICH MAY BE
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF
10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS
OR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
...HISPANIOLA...
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING TO COASTAL WATERS OF NE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE N WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N48W TO 23N59W TO 19N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 21N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER THE N EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT ENTERS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N12W TO 23N22W TO 24N34W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N38W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-43W. OTHERWISE... A 1021 MB
HIGH IS JUST N OF FREEPORT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
NR
