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AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS NEAR 22.0N 97.3W AT 03/0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. THE FORECAST IS FOR DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TOMORROW MORNING.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W TO 13N32W TO 9N33W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N50W 10N52W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ALSO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N65W...PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N66W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE AREA OF 15N67W NORTHWARD TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF TODAY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 22N76W... ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 10N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS... THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 32N66W-24N77W-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN WHICH OF THE FEATURES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVES IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 79W EASTWARD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W WESTWARD INCLUDING ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N25W TO 5N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N34W TO 7N42W TO 10N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREA THAT IS FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD... IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA...THANKS TO A 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 30N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KVAF AND KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA...IN TALLAHASSEE...IN PERRY...AND IN SARASOTA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 65W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.48 IN MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.34 IN TRINIDAD...0.24 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO... AND 0.10 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA AND IN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 76W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.


...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INCLUDING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 32N71W TO A 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 69W WESTWARD...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 79W EASTWARD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W WESTWARD INCLUDING ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 88W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND THE RIDGE WILL PUSH WESTWARD... ENCOMPASSING HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE RIDGE

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 38N31W...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 32N ALSO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N55W 27N40W 28N30W 30N20W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N30W 27N44W...TO BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N41W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 30N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ MT

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